Volatility

Tech's Q1 earnings could look bifurcated as AI drives divisions even as cloud and internet advertising competition accelerates.

Earnings season gets busy today, with more green than red on the morning's scorecard and Tesla looming later. A Treasury auction this afternoon could be worth watching for signs of demand, with yields elevated early Tuesday. The dollar and crude have eased a bit, which could help stocks.

Tesla's reporting Q1 earnings tomorrow. Stubborn inflation, slower U.S. EV sales, and increasing global competition are in the industry's headlights.

After suffering the worst week in more than a year amid massive selling of technology shares, the major indexes appear ready to mount a comeback early Monday. However, recent rallies haven't lasted, with selling showing up each time. A big week is ahead for tech earnings, along with Tesla tomorrow and PCE inflation on Friday.

Major indexes traded near the flat line in wary action early Friday following Israel's overnight limited attack against Iran that reportedly caused little damage. Volatility and crude oil initially spiked but then erased most of their gains, while U.S. Treasuries saw some strength amid defensive trading. Netflix is down 5% after earnings, with investors focused on guidance.

Wall Street is off to a slightly better start today but that's been the pattern all week and none of the rallies lasted through the close. Better-than-expected results from Taiwan Semiconductor appeared to help the sagging chip sector, while Netflix earnings come after the close. Weaker oil and dollar could support.

Strength in mega-cap tech and results from United Airlines may be providing a foundation of strength after the market saw three straight days of losses.

Major indexes engineered slight gains ahead of the open a few hours before Fed Chairman Jerome Powell prepares to speak. Volatility is at levels last seen in late 2023 while traders await a possible Israeli response to Iran's weekend attack, and Treasury yields remain elevated on strong U.S. economic data.

Major indexes engineered a rebound from Friday's sell-off despite missile strikes on Israel by Iran over the weekend. Volatility eased but still remains near highs. Retail sales jumped 0.7%, above consensus expectations of 0.4%. The strong dollar and rising Treasury yields, along with concerns of a possible Israel response, could remain headwinds.

Risk-off" sentiment appears to be building on Wall Street ahead of the weekend, characterized by falling Treasury yields and investors backing away from the big tech stocks that rallied yesterday. Geopolitical concerns mounted even as three major U.S. banks reported better-than-expected results.

Stocks pivoted early Thursday after PPI data suggested U.S. wholesale prices cooled slightly last month. This follows yesterday's hot consumer price report that slammed stocks and sent Treasury yields spinning much higher. Tomorrow brings the unofficial start of earnings season as three major banks report.

Big banks kick off Q1 earnings season Friday after a strong quarter for financials as the U.S. economy sprouted some green shoots. Stable rates were another positive, but more recent inflation fears and rising yields could trim optimism.

Hopes that U.S. consumer inflation might cool in March blew away in the spring wind early Wednesday as the March CPI report came in hotter than expected at 0.4% for both core and headline monthly price growth. Treasury yields quickly soared to five-month highs and stocks retreated as rate cut hopes faded.

CD investing isn’t limited to walking into your local bank branch and opening an account. Learn the potential benefits and risks of brokered CDs and bank CDs.

Stocks are little changed early Tuesday, but trending slightly higher, as yields give some ground and the dollar eases ahead of tomorrow's crucial CPI inflation data. Another hot report could diminish June rate cut hopes, but economic resilience has stocks near all-time highs.

Treasury yields climbed this morning, helping keep major indexes from building on Friday's rally. Trading could be choppy and anxious the next day or two ahead of Wednesday's critical CPI data, while FOMC minutes and an ECB meeting later this week keep rates in focus.

A surprise 303,000 gain from the Nonfarm Payrolls report far exceeded Wall Street expectations of only around 200,000. Yields popped nine basis points on the news, while equities pulled back from premarket gains following the report after having rebounded from yesterday's sharp sell-off.

A day before the crucial March U.S. jobs report, major indexes added to yesterday's gains in premarket trading as rallies in Treasury yields and the dollar slowed. Job cuts last month reached the highest level for any month since early 2023, a potential sign of the labor market losing steam. Analysts expect tomorrow's jobs data to show 200,000 jobs created and unemployment of 3.8%.

Yields continued their climb to start the quarter Wednesday ahead of several Fed policy maker speeches, including one later today from Fed Chairman Powell. The ADP jobs report this morning showed growth well above expectations at 184,000, adding to worries about inflation as wage gains remained strong.

Stocks are under pressure for the second day in a row amid a host of concerns, namely rising yields, crude oil, and the dollar. Robust U.S., European, and Chinese manufacturing data early this week raised inflation concerns and pushed back on rate cut hopes. Tesla's delivery numbers and February U.S. job openings data are awaited.

The new quarter begins with major indexes modestly higher in premarket trading and investors looking ahead to this morning's ISM manufacturing data. Yields are a little higher but not dramatically so following an in-line PCE inflation number released Friday. Mega caps trended slightly higher overnight. Focus this week is on Friday's Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Stocks are mixed ahead of tomorrow's holiday closure and PCE inflation data as investors focus on a surprise jump in Q4 GDP to an annualized 3.4%. All eyes are on tomorrow's report, but with markets closed no one can trade it until futures trading opens Sunday night. Look for lots of data from Japan and China starting tonight.

Our chief market strategist breaks down the day's top business stories and offers insight on how they might impact your trading and investing.

The Fed held rates steady in January. Find out the likelihood of when the Fed will cut rates.

The SEC decision marks a potentially significant shift in how cryptocurrencies are viewed and traded by the investing public.

Investors likely face turning points in interest rates and the economy in 2024. Manage stress and uncertainty by broadening the lens to focus on personal goals and wealth plans.

The Federal Reserve's latest decision suggests that policymakers are encouraged by lower inflation and may pivot to rate cuts in 2024.

The Fed ended its two-day policy meeting with interest rates unchanged and signaled slower growth and lower inflation may lead to multiple rate cuts in 2024.

Our outlook for 2024 is a potentially volatile though gradual U-shaped recovery. Here is how big-picture perspective may benefit global investors.

Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.

With unanimity, the Fed opted to keep the fed funds rate unchanged but remains attentive to the idea that inflation risk should still be paid attention to.

Expectations of "higher for longer" U.S. interest rates has helped drive the dollar's recent rally.

A surprising last-minute deal on Capitol Hill averted a government shutdown—for now. But lawmakers face a new mid-November deadline that will be just as tricky to navigate.

The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.

Discover how to calculate historical volatility (HV) and implied volatility (IV) rank using percentiles on thinkorswim to assess normal or unusual changes.

Learn the calculation process for the Sortino ratio formula and discover new skills to evaluate downside volatility and potential losses in your portfolio.

Explore five options strategies designed for low-volatility markets, including two bullish, two bearish, and one neutral, to help traders adapt their strategy.

In a unanimous decision, Federal Reserve policymakers raised the federal funds rate to 5.5%, the highest point since 2001.

What is the Information ratio? The Information ratio (IR) measures the risk-adjusted returns of a particular asset or portfolio against a benchmark. Learn more.

Learn how to calculate the Sharpe ratio to gauge risk, compare investments, and make informed decisions based on risk-adjusted returns in your portfolio.

With unanimity, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate in its current range, but updated projections suggest this rate-hike cycle is not yet over.

Discover options volatility skew (vol skew), which refers to the variation in implied volatility (IV) between out-of-the-money (OTM) calls and puts.

Although the House narrowly approved a bill designed to jumpstart negotiations, the issue is far from resolved.

Protective puts are one way to hedge stocks against a significant price drop. But investors should consider factors such as time decay and volatility.

During a major economic event, it may be a good time to revisit your portfolio. It could mean rethinking long-term objectives, reexamining your risk tolerance, or taking a moment to self-reflect.

Trying to figure out your financial planning during a time of market volatility? Learn how to stick to your financial goals.

When companies report quarterly earnings, the stakes can be high. A single earnings miss can dent an investment portfolio that’s concentrated. Here are a few ideas for managing idiosyncratic risk.

A good defense is the best offense, right? It’s sometimes true for investing as well. Learn more about defensive stocks and defensive sector investing.

In technical analysis, many traders start with trend and momentum indicators. But don’t forget volatility indicators, which track the magnitude of price movements.

Traders can use the beta-weighting tool on the thinkorswim® platform to view the overall risk of all their positions as a whole instead of looking at risks of individual assets.

The average true range (ATR) indicator could be a new arrow in your quiver of technical analysis tools. Learn how the ATR indicator helps traders set their exit strategy.

What is a black swan event? Learn about black swan events and how you can attempt to protect yourself and your portfolio from adverse shocks.

Market volatility and market inflation can destroy investment value. Here’s how investors can account for both in their long-term portfolio strategy.

Earnings season can create volatility in price movement. Learn how to spot potential options trade candidates by assessing straddle price versus average earnings moves.

Diversification isn’t just about stocks, bonds, and cash. When hedging risk for an options portfolio, think price, time, and volatility.

When you look beneath the Analyze tab on thinkorswim®, you may find some features you may not have known about.

Understanding the nature of volatility regimes and recognizing when it’s shifting could help unlock potential trading opportunities.

Understanding the relationships between stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies can help you identify economic trends and better manage your investments.

Want to try your hand at short-term trading? Consider swing trading: holding positions for a few days to try to capture a larger intermediate-term price swing.

Learn how the Risk Profile tool in the thinkorswim platform can help options traders visualize different scenarios and make trading decisions a little simpler.

With many options trading strategies to choose from, how do you find the right one? Consider a three-step process to help with your decision.

Options straddles and strangles are a way for advanced traders to get long or short exposure to volatility (vega), but the volatility needs to be weighted against time decay (theta). Here are the basics.

Do the headwinds of time decay turn you off from buying single options on volatile stocks? Find out how you may be able to turn the headwinds into tailwinds by trading those stock moves.

Successful traders have rules and stick to them, whether those rules are based on volatility, probability, technical analysis, or other factors.

Return on capital and liquidity mean specific things in finance. But they can mean something different to an option trader. Read this options trading terminology guide to find out.

2020 was a challenging year for investors. But 2021 might be a challenge as well—for different reasons. Here’s a look at the opportunities and risks.

Starting the new year fresh can be a great idea. Despite the drop and pop we saw last year, it may still be a good time to think about resetting your trading strategies and get a fresh start.

Selling covered calls and cash-secured puts can help investors generate additional income, increase their probability of success, decrease their volatility of returns, and lower their overall risk when compared to buying stock.

When faced with high volatility, many options traders turn to these five strategies designed to capitalize on elevated volatility levels.

Like most financial advisors, robo-advisors recommend portfolios based on investors’ long-term financial goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Because robo-advisors generally use algorithms to make investment decisions, they avoid emotions and generally charge lower fees.

The “financial independence, retire early” (FIRE) movement was all the rage in 2018 and 2019, but the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we think about a lot of things. Has the upheaval in 2020 changed the desire to FIRE? And how might retirement plans be affected by the current situation?

Special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) have been around awhile, but they’ve gotten some new attention in 2020. Here’s a look at the mechanics and risks for investors involved in blank-check companies.

Are you an investor who follows the daily or weekly ebb and flow of your retirement accounts? If so, market downturns might be a bit unsettling at times. But what if instead of focusing on today’s bottom line you focused instead on outcomes—your progress toward your goals? Here’s how.

The escalating coronavirus pandemic that triggered a bear market in U.S. stocks in early 2020 looks to have tipped us into a possible recession. How can you prepare for and invest during a recession and bear market?

Learn about the Bollinger Bands technical indicator and how it can help identify volatility and overbought/oversold conditions in stocks and indices.

The monthly U.S. Employment Situation report—commonly called the jobs report—is perhaps the most closely watched fundamental indicator for traders and investors. Here’s why.

Tariffs have been part of American economic history from the country’s origins. Are tariffs good or bad for investors?

Should you switch from trading long options strategies to short options strategies when volatility levels are high? Sometimes prices are high for a reason.

All investments experience market volatility, which is why retirement portfolio strategies should focus on allocating assets across investments of different risk levels.

When volatility rears its occasional head, some investors consider cashing out stocks. But are there better ways to ride out market volatility? Cameron May explains.

What is a smart-beta ETF? Explore what qualifies as a smart-beta fund and what systems define this type of ETF.

In these times of stock market volatility, many investors are looking for yield in fixed income and dividend stocks. However, there’s risk in these investments, too, so know what you’re getting into.

As trade war fears heat up between the U.S. and some of its major trading partners, some investors may be looking for tariff protection. Here are some things to consider as you aim for a “trade-war-proof” portfolio.

Trading with your emotions during times of market volatility? Explore whether a robo-advisor may be able to help.

Looking for volatility exposure? Learn about volatility products including VIX options.

Temporarily protect your retirement against volatility risk. Here are some retirement- planning strategies.

Got stock options? Set goals and have a plan. Here are three steps to consider for your equity compensation plan.

Volatility data is focused on the long term. Traders are focused on the short term. There is a way to convert volatility data so it can be useful for the trader.

Does volatility worry you when it comes to the stock you've received as compensation? Learn tips to help manage this valid concern.

Here’s why you need to keep your retirement money growing even when you’re already using it (hint: inflation and longevity).

New to stock investing? Learn the basics of stocks, earnings, dividends, and how a stock’s value is determined.

The recent wave of volatility might serve as a reminder of the importance of using a diversified investment trading approach. Here are some tips to avoid possible traps in these choppy markets.

Using volatility and market statistics is one of many keys to successful stock market trading. Learn how to incorporate them into your investment strategy.

With the earnings calendar tools available on the TD Ameritrade thinkorswim Platform, you can be in the know when it comes to the earnings season.

Learn about the dynamics of foreign exchange volatility, and where to find currency volatility data.

The U.S. presidential election cycle theory of the stock market says that the market moves based on the year of the president's term. Is there any proof?

Implied volatility tends to be mean reverting. But what does that really mean? Learn how options traders can potentially benefit from monitoring implied volat

ETFs have matured but they’re not done evolving. Morningstar’s Scott Burns urges income-seeking investors to expand their minds and their research.

Volatility’s tendency to level out after a spike can present strategy opportunities, especially selling strategies found with strangles and iron condors.

Use volatility to pick an options strategy to speculate on a given direction, rather than to replace fundamental analysis and charts to determine potential.