Volatility

Yields hit fresh two-month lows early Wednesday, then turned mixed as investors digested the government's second Q3 GDP estimate. Growth rose more than analysts had expected but consumer was shy of forecasts, a possible conundrum. PCE inflation data tomorrow looms.

Without Nonfarm Payrolls at the end of the week, Wall Street faces a new month with something of a data drought. Fed speakers, including Powell on Friday, may fill the vacuum.

Economic pain is likely in 2024, but that doesn’t mean stocks will struggle all year, especially if there is a continuation of the rolling recessions that have hit the economy.

There were signs of strong holiday shopping over the weekend as several additional retailers prepare to report this week, but stocks felt pressure early Monday from weak Chinese industrial profits data. Several Treasury auctions run today and Fed speakers return tomorrow.

Today’s a shortened session, but investors will be digesting Friday’s Black Friday retail reports with their turkey dinners. Next week’s attention turns to key housing data and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator.

There's a bunch of fresh news this morning including a surprise delay by OPEC of its weekend meeting, the return of Sam Altman to OpenAI, and an Nvidia earnings report that mostly impressed. Volume could lighten as the day continues ahead of tomorrow's U.S. holiday closure.

Artificial intelligence is front and center today as investors watch for new developments in the storm centering around OpenAI even as Nvidia’s earnings are expected after the close. Fed minutes are also in the picture and several big retailers reported today.

The shortened holiday week offers plenty of action, including an OPEC meeting, Nvidia earnings, and Treasury auctions. The dollar index is near three-month lows, which could provide support for equities. Microsoft shares rose in premarket trading on a key new hire.

Wall Street got a boost open from falling Treasury yields as the futures market built in growing chances of a Fed rate cut as soon as Q1 of 2024. Much depends on data between now and then, however. Next week is short, but includes Fed minutes, Nvidia earnings, and Leading Indicators.

The bill will keep the federal government running into early 2024, but it likely increases the risk of a shutdown in February.

The long rally could be at risk as Walmart and Cisco both expressed caution in their guidance. Shares of both companies lost ground ahead of the open, and the weakness appeared to spread to the major indexes. Treasury yields, however, remain near the bottom of their range.

Inflation cooled on the wholesale side in October, helped by falling gas prices, but retail sales remained hotter than expected. This could mean consumers stayed healthy amid low unemployment. Treasury yields got an initial bounce from the retail sales data.

The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this morning showed flat headline growth month-over-month and the lightest yearly gain in core prices in two years. Stocks immediately lifted off after the data as investors dialed down chances of near-term rate hikes to practically zero.

A critical week lies ahead as Washington, D.C., counts down to a possible shutdown, Biden meets Xi, and market awaits key inflation data starting Tuesday. Stocks lost some traction early Monday and volatility could increase amid the data and headline focus ahead.

Wall Street's long winning streak ended yesterday as Treasury yields spiked, but things got quieter this morning on a day featuring little in the way of important data or earnings. It changes next week as investors await October Consumer Price Index data and Retail Sales.

The major indexes enter Thursday on their longest win streaks in nearly two years, but data and earnings are thin. Settlement of the actors' strike lifted studio stocks early, while investors await Fed Chairman Powell's remarks this afternoon.

Remarks by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell this morning put the focus back on Fed policy after its rate pause last week, but the spotlight turns to Disney earnings after the close. Crude hit 3-month lows today after a large U.S. supply gain, and there's a 10-year Treasury auction later.

Stocks came under pressure early Tuesday, threatening the six-day S&P 500 rally as investors contemplated a Fed speaker's hawkish tone and await more remarks from central bank officials. The 10-year yield fell slightly but remains above 4.6%, while Uber's results stopped short.

Wall Street enjoyed its best week of the year last week but an encore might be tough amid a dearth of major earnings and data. Fed speakers, including Chairman Powelll, dominate the calendar, along with earnings from Disney at mid-week. The 10-year yield bears close watching.

With unanimity, the Fed opted to keep the fed funds rate unchanged but remains attentive to the idea that inflation risk should still be paid attention to.

Expectations of "higher for longer" U.S. interest rates has helped drive the dollar's recent rally.

A surprising last-minute deal on Capitol Hill averted a government shutdown—for now. But lawmakers face a new mid-November deadline that will be just as tricky to navigate.

The September Federal Reserve meeting provided few surprises, but ongoing uncertainty about the Fed's next move may mean more volatility ahead.

Discover how to calculate historical volatility (HV) and implied volatility (IV) rank using percentiles on thinkorswim to assess normal or unusual changes.

Learn the calculation process for the Sortino ratio formula and discover new skills to evaluate downside volatility and potential losses in your portfolio.

Explore five options strategies designed for low-volatility markets, including two bullish, two bearish, and one neutral, to help traders adapt their strategy.

In a unanimous decision, Federal Reserve policymakers raised the federal funds rate to 5.5%, the highest point since 2001.

What is the Information ratio? The Information ratio (IR) measures the risk-adjusted returns of a particular asset or portfolio against a benchmark. Learn more.

Learn how to calculate the Sharpe ratio to gauge risk, compare investments, and make informed decisions based on risk-adjusted returns in your portfolio.

After falling into its own recession last year, the housing market has started to turn decisively higher; but a sustained recovery might not be the strongest elixir for the economy.

Our chief market strategist breaks down the day's top business stories and offers insight on how they might impact your trading and investing.

With unanimity, the Federal Open Market Committee held the federal funds rate in its current range, but updated projections suggest this rate-hike cycle is not yet over.

A broadening out in market performance would help bolster a more sustainable stock rally, but that hinges on increasing clarity for monetary policy, recession risk, and bank stress.

Discover options volatility skew (vol skew), which refers to the variation in implied volatility (IV) between out-of-the-money (OTM) calls and puts.

Despite high volatility in the bond market during the first half of the year, what's surprising is how much didn't change.

Although the House narrowly approved a bill designed to jumpstart negotiations, the issue is far from resolved.

Protective puts are one way to hedge stocks against a significant price drop. But investors should consider factors such as time decay and volatility.

During a major economic event, it may be a good time to revisit your portfolio. It could mean rethinking long-term objectives, reexamining your risk tolerance, or taking a moment to self-reflect.

Trying to figure out your financial planning during a time of market volatility? Learn how to stick to your financial goals.

When companies report quarterly earnings, the stakes can be high. A single earnings miss can dent an investment portfolio that’s concentrated. Here are a few ideas for managing idiosyncratic risk.

A good defense is the best offense, right? It’s sometimes true for investing as well. Learn more about defensive stocks and defensive sector investing.

In technical analysis, many traders start with trend and momentum indicators. But don’t forget volatility indicators, which track the magnitude of price movements.

Traders can use the beta-weighting tool on the thinkorswim® platform to view the overall risk of all their positions as a whole instead of looking at risks of individual assets.

The average true range (ATR) indicator could be a new arrow in your quiver of technical analysis tools. Learn how the ATR indicator helps traders set their exit strategy.

What is a black swan event? Learn about black swan events and how you can attempt to protect yourself and your portfolio from adverse shocks.

Market volatility and market inflation can destroy investment value. Here’s how investors can account for both in their long-term portfolio strategy.

CD investing isn’t limited to walking into your local bank branch and opening an account. Learn the potential benefits and risks of brokered CDs and bank CDs.

Earnings season can create volatility in price movement. Learn how to spot potential options trade candidates by assessing straddle price versus average earnings moves.

Diversification isn’t just about stocks, bonds, and cash. When hedging risk for an options portfolio, think price, time, and volatility.

When you look beneath the Analyze tab on thinkorswim®, you may find some features you may not have known about.

Understanding the nature of volatility regimes and recognizing when it’s shifting could help unlock potential trading opportunities.

Understanding the relationships between stocks, bonds, commodities, and currencies can help you identify economic trends and better manage your investments.

Want to try your hand at short-term trading? Consider swing trading: holding positions for a few days to try to capture a larger intermediate-term price swing.

Learn how the Risk Profile tool in the thinkorswim platform can help options traders visualize different scenarios and make trading decisions a little simpler.

With many options trading strategies to choose from, how do you find the right one? Consider a three-step process to help with your decision.

Options straddles and strangles are a way for advanced traders to get long or short exposure to volatility (vega), but the volatility needs to be weighted against time decay (theta). Here are the basics.

Do the headwinds of time decay turn you off from buying single options on volatile stocks? Find out how you may be able to turn the headwinds into tailwinds by trading those stock moves.

Successful traders have rules and stick to them, whether those rules are based on volatility, probability, technical analysis, or other factors.

Return on capital and liquidity mean specific things in finance. But they can mean something different to an option trader. Read this options trading terminology guide to find out.

2020 was a challenging year for investors. But 2021 might be a challenge as well—for different reasons. Here’s a look at the opportunities and risks.

Starting the new year fresh can be a great idea. Despite the drop and pop we saw last year, it may still be a good time to think about resetting your trading strategies and get a fresh start.

Selling covered calls and cash-secured puts can help investors generate additional income, increase their probability of success, decrease their volatility of returns, and lower their overall risk when compared to buying stock.

When faced with high volatility, many options traders turn to these five strategies designed to capitalize on elevated volatility levels.

Like most financial advisors, robo-advisors recommend portfolios based on investors’ long-term financial goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. Because robo-advisors generally use algorithms to make investment decisions, they avoid emotions and generally charge lower fees.

The “financial independence, retire early” (FIRE) movement was all the rage in 2018 and 2019, but the COVID-19 pandemic has changed the way we think about a lot of things. Has the upheaval in 2020 changed the desire to FIRE? And how might retirement plans be affected by the current situation?

Special-purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) have been around awhile, but they’ve gotten some new attention in 2020. Here’s a look at the mechanics and risks for investors involved in blank-check companies.

Are you an investor who follows the daily or weekly ebb and flow of your retirement accounts? If so, market downturns might be a bit unsettling at times. But what if instead of focusing on today’s bottom line you focused instead on outcomes—your progress toward your goals? Here’s how.

The escalating coronavirus pandemic that triggered a bear market in U.S. stocks in early 2020 looks to have tipped us into a possible recession. How can you prepare for and invest during a recession and bear market?

Learn about the Bollinger Bands technical indicator and how it can help identify volatility and overbought/oversold conditions in stocks and indices.

The monthly U.S. Employment Situation report—commonly called the jobs report—is perhaps the most closely watched fundamental indicator for traders and investors. Here’s why.

Tariffs have been part of American economic history from the country’s origins. Are tariffs good or bad for investors?

Should you switch from trading long options strategies to short options strategies when volatility levels are high? Sometimes prices are high for a reason.

All investments experience market volatility, which is why retirement portfolio strategies should focus on allocating assets across investments of different risk levels.

When volatility rears its occasional head, some investors consider cashing out stocks. But are there better ways to ride out market volatility? Cameron May explains.

What is a smart-beta ETF? Explore what qualifies as a smart-beta fund and what systems define this type of ETF.

In these times of stock market volatility, many investors are looking for yield in fixed income and dividend stocks. However, there’s risk in these investments, too, so know what you’re getting into.

As trade war fears heat up between the U.S. and some of its major trading partners, some investors may be looking for tariff protection. Here are some things to consider as you aim for a “trade-war-proof” portfolio.

Trading with your emotions during times of market volatility? Explore whether a robo-advisor may be able to help.

Looking for volatility exposure? Learn about volatility products including VIX options.

Temporarily protect your retirement against volatility risk. Here are some retirement- planning strategies.

Got stock options? Set goals and have a plan. Here are three steps to consider for your equity compensation plan.

Volatility data is focused on the long term. Traders are focused on the short term. There is a way to convert volatility data so it can be useful for the trader.

Does volatility worry you when it comes to the stock you've received as compensation? Learn tips to help manage this valid concern.

Here’s why you need to keep your retirement money growing even when you’re already using it (hint: inflation and longevity).

New to stock investing? Learn the basics of stocks, earnings, dividends, and how a stock’s value is determined.

The recent wave of volatility might serve as a reminder of the importance of using a diversified investment trading approach. Here are some tips to avoid possible traps in these choppy markets.

Using volatility and market statistics is one of many keys to successful stock market trading. Learn how to incorporate them into your investment strategy.

With the earnings calendar tools available on the TD Ameritrade thinkorswim Platform, you can be in the know when it comes to the earnings season.

Learn about the dynamics of foreign exchange volatility, and where to find currency volatility data.

The U.S. presidential election cycle theory of the stock market says that the market moves based on the year of the president's term. Is there any proof?

Implied volatility tends to be mean reverting. But what does that really mean? Learn how options traders can potentially benefit from monitoring implied volat

ETFs have matured but they’re not done evolving. Morningstar’s Scott Burns urges income-seeking investors to expand their minds and their research.

Volatility’s tendency to level out after a spike can present strategy opportunities, especially selling strategies found with strangles and iron condors.

Use volatility to pick an options strategy to speculate on a given direction, rather than to replace fundamental analysis and charts to determine potential.

Trying to time the market? Add sentiment analysis to your stock trading approach to help narrow the time horizon around an underlying security’s move.

Check out short-term options pricing to gain a sense of how the underlying stock could move around an earnings release. You can track straddles or use the TD

Out-of-the-money call options may be hard to trade when volatility is low, but there are good opportunities for cheaper options trades during market extremes.