As trade war fears heat up between the U.S. and some of its major trading partners, some investors may be looking for tariff protection. Here are some things to consider as you aim for a “trade-war-proof” portfolio.
Consider “going granular” with regional banks, domestic airlines, or health care stocks
There are ways to batten down the hatches and possibly get some tariff protection. U.S. Treasuries are one popular option, but not the only choice. Some market experts suggest a look at stocks, sectors, and fixed income investments not as exposed to trade war impact.
“If you’re looking for trade-war proof plays, you’d have to think of areas where there is little, if any, international exposure,” said Patrick O’Hare, Chief Market Analyst at Briefing.com.
That’s what some investors are doing.
“We’re taking a look at companies that are focused on the internal portions of our country, earning most of their money in the U.S.,” said Dryden Pence, Chief Investment Officer at Pence Wealth Management.
Major companies in the U.S. e-commerce, entertainment, and payments sectors come to mind, Pence added, and are among the more “U.S.-centric” areas he’s looking at. For instance, the big U.S. e-commerce companies tend to do most of their business with U.S. consumers, so they might have a bit of an umbrella protecting them from the downpour of trade battles, he said.
This doesn’t mean, necessarily, that you can just buy these types of stocks and stay dry. They’ll likely be exposed to volatility associated with the trade issues, and many of them are popular in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), meaning they’ll probably drop with other stocks in a market shellacking.
However, that can sometimes make them seem like a bit of a bargain, Pence said. He increased his cash and short-term fixed income holdings recently to address volatility and have the dry powder to eventually make purchases if he sees a good deal.
One risk of focusing on stocks like the ones Pence has in mind could be a reduction in overall U.S. consumer demand. Some data say there can be a reduction in demand if prices go up due to tariffs. The rise in prices could be mitigated, however, if some companies facing tariffs in a certain country decide to move their operations to a country unaffected by tariffs.
Others suggest focusing on certain sectors.
“(Tariffs) would likely bring the utilities sector into play and certain parts of the health care—for instance, hospital and managed care companies—and regional banks sectors,” O’Hare said.
O’Hare added, however, that utility stocks already seem “richly valued.” Buying utilities because they’re 100% domestic is “a tired idea,” O’Hare said, adding that “when skies clear, they can fall hard.”
Regional banks make most of their loans within the U.S., potentially shielding them from overseas turbulence, O’Hare said. They might also benefit from a steep drop in mortgage rates that could propel the housing market. O’Hare called regional banks a possible “place to hide,” but warned that if trade issues really start to hurt the economy, regional banks could suffer along with the rest of the Financial sector.
Another place that seemed to get some traction when trade issues first cropped up last year was small-caps, which include many of those regional banks. The Russell 2000 Index (RUT) of small-caps reached record highs by mid-2018 amid thoughts that smaller U.S. stocks tend to have more insulation from foreign customers.
However, when trade tensions reached a boiling point in May 2019, the RUT got beaten down with the rest of the market, falling about 6% during the month. Over the same period, the large-cap S&P 500 Index (SPX) fell about 3%.
O’Hare believes investors looking for a trade shield might have to go granular, looking at individual companies rather than funds. A company like Southwest Airlines (LUV), for instance, could have some protection from overseas risk because its routes are overwhelmingly domestic, he noted. However, an investor who bought the company’s stock as part of a fund or ETF containing other airline names might face pressure from airlines in the fund with international exposure.
The Health Care sector could be another one where investors might want to consider granularity, O’Hare said. Yes, some of the hospital companies might be insulated from global trade, but that’s not the case for most pharmaceutical firms.
“You almost have to think stock-specific,” O’Hare said.
For an investor concerned about a company’s potential exposure to trade, buying a corporate bond might provide some defense. The risk with corporate bonds is the chance of default, though buying a bond fund instead of a single one can often provide some protection against that, depending on how broadly diversified the underlying portfolio of bonds is.
Municipal bonds issued by states, cities, counties or other governmental entities are another idea, especially with the U.S. economy still growing above 3% in Q1. These have default risk, but are exempt from federal taxes and most state and local taxes, maybe giving them an advantage over corporate bonds for some investors. That said, interest income and capital gains on municipal securities may be subject to the Alternative Minimum Tax.
In uncertain times, gold is another investment some people start to look at. Gold surged recently, climbing to three-month highs above $1,330 an ounce as of early June 2019. One thing to consider, however, is that gold might be approaching thin air at these levels. It hasn’t hit $1,400 since 2013.
That takes us back to Treasuries and cash, which aren’t necessarily exciting but often give solid protection from trade turbulence. If you’re worried about volatility in the stock market, maybe consider putting some cash into Treasuries or CDs, where volatility is pretty much a non-factor. In all likelihood, that won’t be the case for stocks anytime soon.
“Trade wars eventually end, but meanwhile there will be a lot of volatility now and throughout the summer,” Pence warned.
Treasuries are often seen as the ultimate “defensive” investment, mainly because the U.S. government isn’t likely to ever default on its debt. However, the possibility theoretically exists, and the U.S. debt ceiling expired in March.
It’s also not necessarily “safe” to buy a product like a 10-year Treasury note if the yield is near the rate of inflation. For a potentially higher yield, it might be worth checking CD rates.
O’Hare says investors interested in Treasuries should consider going short-term so their money isn’t locked up for years if the trade issues get resolved. Unusually, there’s no yield penalty now for taking the short-term approach, he added, saying “You can get more yield on a three-month bill than a 10-year.”
He added that if trade winds keep roaring, investors might want to keep things in perspective about how much return they can achieve in the near term, wherever they put their money.
In other words, maybe the idea isn’t to look for big potential gains, but instead consider stocks and sectors that would be less subject to dramatic losses in an escalating trade war, O’Hare said. Sometimes relative strength can be defined by which stocks go down the least, rather than which ones go up the most.
“Ideally you’re looking for a return on capital, but in a case like this even a return of capital can be appealing,” O’Hare said.
for thinkMoney ®
Financial Communications Society 2016
for Ticker Tape
Content Marketing Awards 2016
Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.
Be sure to understand all risks involved with each strategy, including commission costs, before attempting to place any trade. Clients must consider all relevant risk factors, including their own personal financial situations, before trading.
Investments in fixed income products, such as bonds and CDs, are subject to liquidity (or market) risk, interest rate risk (bonds ordinarily decline in price when interest rates rise and rise in price when interest rates fall), financial (or credit) risk, inflation (or purchasing power) risk and special tax liabilities. May be worth less than the original cost upon redemption.
Carefully consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses before investing. A prospectus, obtained by calling 800-669-3900, contains this and other important information about an investment company. Read carefully before investing.
ETFs can entail risks similar to direct stock ownership, including market, sector, or industry risks. Some ETFs may involve international risk, currency risk, commodity risk, and interest rate risk. Trading prices may not reflect the net asset value of the underlying securities. Commission fees typically apply.
Asset allocation and diversification do not eliminate the risk of experiencing investment losses.
TD Ameritrade and all third parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated companies, and are not responsible for each other’s policies or services.
Inclusion of specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold.
All investments involve risk, including loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. There is no assurance that the investment process will consistently lead to successful investing.
Market volatility, volume, and system availability may delay account access and trade executions.
Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results or success.
Options are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading may expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses. Options trading subject to TD Ameritrade review and approval. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before investing in options.
Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or other technical data will be supplied upon request.
This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to persons residing in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, UK, and the countries of the European Union.
TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2020 TD Ameritrade.