If you’re thinking about investing in IPOs, review these IPO basics to find out how investing in an initial public offering works.
Stock markets at record highs can bring on initial public offerings (IPOs) and plenty of hype. Like most new things, it can be easy to get caught up in the excitement and IPOs are no exception. As the number of companies filing to go public has increased in recent months, it may be as good a time as ever to learn some basics of IPOs to help you avoid getting burned by a new offering.
Some of the companies that speculators think might file in 2018 appear to have lofty valuations, according to some analysts, who have noted that some of these companies are still operating at a loss and there isn’t a clear path to profitability. Just like with any other investment, it’s important to do your own homework and review some IPO basics so that education, not hype, drives your decision-making.
So why do companies go public? Private companies go public for a variety of reasons: to “maximize shareholder value”, raise capital to invest and grow the business, or, possibly, use the shares as currency for a merger or acquisition. IPOs are also one of many ways venture capital and private equity investors exit their stakes in the company.
The number of companies filing to go public tends to accelerate during strong markets, however there are many factors that go into a company’s decision of when, and if, they will file to go public. There were 182 IPOs in 2017, up 49% from 122 IPOs in 2016, according to Bloomberg. The combination of record highs and low volatility are two factors that might’ve attracted more companies to go public last year.
First things first, your broker must be part of the initial offering, and not every broker has access to all of them. Even if your broker is participating, it can still be difficult to get the new shares and you must meet certain requirements pertaining to experience, risk tolerance, income and/or investable assets. If you’re a TD Ameritrade client, details on upcoming IPOs are accessible with just a few clicks (see figure 1).
FIGURE 1: MAKING A DEBUT.
Expected IPO pricing and other details (gray box) are available to TD Ameritrade clients on tdameritrade.com. To access the Calendar, log in to your account, go to Research & Ideas, click the Markets sub-head, select Calendar and select Equity IPOs (green arrows). Source: TD Ameritrade. For illustrative purposes only.
At this point, if you’re able to access the IPO and the company meets your investment criteria, there are several items to consider: the overall offering size, how many shares are available, and the general level of demand among investors. Shares of some IPOs—generally high-profile companies with plenty of attention in the financial press—can be difficult to acquire because of high demand.
So just what makes for an in-demand IPO? The answer to that question is highly subjective and difficult to determine before the stock actually starts trading. That’s because a company filing to go public is largely an unknown entity. Sure, a company must file a prospectus with securities regulators and supply investors with financial information before listing. But without any trading history on public markets, or quarterly financial results, determining an IPO’s prospects is more art than science. Still, there are a few places to turn for more information.
First, check whether established, reputable banks are underwriting the IPO. That list includes, but is not limited to: Goldman Sachs, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Barclays, Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Credit Suisse, Citigroup, Deutsche Bank, and UBS. Checking financial media coverage, or the company’s pre-IPO regulatory filings, is one place to gather information about the underwriters.
Next, analyze publicly traded competitors and how those shares are performing. If stocks of companies in the same industry are trending higher, it could suggest a chance the IPO might do well. It’s also possible these companies are already entrenched in their respective sectors and a newcomer could struggle to be successful. Conversely, if competing stocks are in a bear market, then the IPO could decline with the rest of the sector.
It’s long been said that it’s not how you start that’s the most important thing, it’s how you finish. That’s not necessarily the case with an IPO. One of the most important aspects of an IPO is the opening price—where the stock begins its exchange-listed life on its first day of trading.
Accurately pricing an IPO is a challenge even for the investment banks that’ve been doing this for years. Naturally, the company holding the IPO wants a high price, while investors prefer something lower. It’s up to the banks to find the middle ground. Sometimes they nail it and sometimes they miss, badly.
Generally, a stock that falls below its opening level may require further “price discovery,” meaning it could drop further until it reaches a point where it’s considered fairly valued. Alternatively, when a stock jumps above its opening price, it is sometimes perceived to be a bullish sign that investors want more and are willing to pay up.
In many cases, it may be prudent to just wait until after a stock starts trading—in other words, let the dust settle. Remember, once a stock is public, it’s out in the harsh, unforgiving market spotlight with its peers. The days, weeks, and months following an IPO will typically reveal whether it was priced well and what kind of growth prospects might lie ahead.
Some simple trading logic can be built around an IPO. Investors can simply wait for a day, or a few days, after the IPO. They can then determine potential entry and exit points based on their observations and understanding of technical analysis, as well as what’s appropriate for their risk tolerance.
Of course, the drawback of waiting for an IPO to start trading could mean missing out on the initial pop from the offering price. But, guess what? Not all IPOs pop. Some just fizzle.
For more information about IPOs, check out TD Ameritrade's Investment Products page.
for thinkMoney ®
Financial Communications Society 2016
for Ticker Tape
Content Marketing Awards 2016
Before investing in an Initial
Public Offering, be sure that you are fully aware of the risks involved with
this type of investing. There are a variety of risk factors typically
associated with investing in new issue securities, any one of which may have a
material and adverse effect on the price of the issuer’s common stock. For a
review of some of the more significant factors and special risks related to
IPOs, we urge you to read our Risk Disclosure Statement.
TD Ameritrade and all third
parties mentioned are separate and unaffiliated companies, and are not
responsible for each other’s policies, services or commentary. Inclusion of
specific security names in this commentary does not constitute a recommendation
from TD Ameritrade to buy, sell, or hold.
Market volatility, volume, and system availability may delay account access and trade executions.
Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results or success.
Options are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading may expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses. Options trading subject to TD Ameritrade review and approval. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before investing in options.
Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or other technical data will be supplied upon request.
The information is not intended to be investment advice or construed as a recommendation or endorsement of any particular investment or investment strategy, and is for illustrative purposes only. Be sure to understand all risks involved with each strategy, including commission costs, before attempting to place any trade. Clients must consider all relevant risk factors, including their own personal financial situations, before trading.
This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to persons residing in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, UK, and the countries of the European Union.
TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2019 TD Ameritrade.