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Sticky Wicket: PCE Inflation Stayed Stubborn in March, but Stocks Still Up on Solid Microsoft, Alphabet Results

9:17am ET 4/26/2024 | Joe Mazzola, Director, Trader Services Education, Charles Schwab

(Friday market open) A key U.S. inflation measure rose slightly more than expected in March, but major U.S. stock indexes maintained overnight gains early Friday and remain on track to break a three-week losing streak. Solid earnings from mega caps Microsoft (MSFT) and Alphabet (GOOGL) provided initial support, as did a tame reaction to the price data from Treasury yields.

March Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) prices, the Federal Reserve’s favored inflation report, rose 0.3% month over month for both headline and core readings (core strips out volatile food and energy costs). Those figures matched analysts’ average expectations. The trouble came with year-over-year growth of 2.7%, above the 2.6% annual growth Wall Street had expected. Annual core PCE rose 2.8%. While monthly increases were in line with consensus, they didn’t show any signs of improvement, matching February’s gains and suggesting the Fed has more work to do.

“PCE was slightly higher than expectations and continues to be elevated,” said Cooper Howard, director, fixed income strategy, at Schwab. “Although inflation isn’t showing much improvement, yields are slightly lower on the day likely because the market is breathing a sigh of relief that it wasn’t higher.”

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