What are contango and backwardation? It’s all about the future: whether deferred-month futures contracts are priced higher than the front months. Learn why a market might be in contango or backwardation.
In a contango market, nearby prices are lower than longer-dated contracts
Understanding contango versus backwardation can provide insights into overall market sentiment
What does the future of a futures market look like? Determining whether that market is in “contango” or “backwardation” can help answer that question.
Is a market in contango or backwardation? To find out, let’s first look at the “forward curve.” Most futures contracts, whether they’re based on crude oil, soybeans, interest rates, or other assets, have a forward curve that reflects the market’s price expectations for the coming months. Can you spot the difference between a market that’s in contango versus a market in backwardation? It’s a key distinction for any trader or investor who’s considering futures (as well as ETFs linked to futures).
The contango-versus-backwardation question involves analyzing price spreads between “nearby” contracts, or those dated within a few months from the present, and longer-dated contracts that expire several months or years down the road, according to Stephanie Lewicky, senior manager, trader education at TD Ameritrade.
“It’s very important for anyone considering a long-term position in a futures market to recognize whether a market has a ‘normal’ forward curve, meaning it’s in contango, or has an ‘inverted’ curve, meaning it’s in backwardation,” Lewicky said. “This tells traders something about the market’s expectations for which way prices might move.”
Figure 1 overlays two snapshots of crude oil futures: one from January 2020, when the market was in backwardation, and another from April 2020, after crude shifted back to contango.
Let’s look at a few additional questions and answers on contango and backwardation.
A futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a commodity or standardized asset on a specific date or during a specific month. Some of the most actively traded futures—such as crude oil—list contracts for several years out. In a contango market, the prices of the further-out futures are higher than nearer-expiration futures. This is reflected in an upward-sloping forward curve.
Why would a market be in contango? There may be multiple reasons, including expectations for tighter supplies, stronger demand, or higher inflation down the road. Contango markets may also reflect expenses for financing, insuring, and storing a given commodity over time (carry costs). Contango is considered the “normal” shape of the forward curve.
Backwardation happens when nearby, or spot, futures prices are higher than the further-expiration contracts, producing a downward-sloping forward curve. Short-term supply disruptions may send a market into backwardation as traders bid up nearby prices of, say, oil in anticipation of tighter inventories.
Whether commodity futures are in contango or backwardation can offer insight into supply and demand fundamentals as well as overall market sentiment.
“Backwardation can happen when the market sees a shortage in crude oil, or when near-term demand exceeds immediate supply,” Lewicky explained. “More often, crude is in contango, where the carry costs make the back months slightly higher than nearby months and there’s equilibrium between supply and demand.”
A futures contract that specifies “physical” delivery of a commodity may also become backwardated “because there may be a benefit to owning the physical material,” according to exchange operator CME Group’s website. For example, an oil company might be aiming to keep refinery processes running.
Backwardation in this case reflects so-called “convenience yield,” an implied return on warehouse inventory, according to CME Group. “Convenience yield is inversely related to inventory levels. When warehouse stocks are high, the convenience yield is low, and when stocks are low, the yield is high.”
Futures prices can change over time as traders’ and investors’ views adjust, so the forward curve can shift from contango to backwardation or the other way around.
Another critical consideration involves exchange-traded funds based on futures. Many futures-based ETFs track nearby contracts. As an ETF’s nearby futures positions approach expiration, the fund manager must “roll” those positions ahead to longer-dated contracts to avoid taking physical delivery.
If the futures market in question is in contango, the ETF investor may be paying more for those longer-term contracts than the expiring nearby contracts. That could cause the net price of the investment to decline. This is called “roll decay,” and in futures markets like oil where contracts expire every month, the decay can really add up.
The slope of the futures curve can tell you a lot about the dynamics of the underlying asset—supply and demand, cost of carry, and even expectations of macroeconomic trends. If you trade futures, or stocks that are heavily involved in commodities (think of energy companies, food distributors, mining stocks, and so on), the ebb and flow between contango and backwardation can help you understand what might be driving the trends.
TD Ameritrade offers access to a broad array of futures trading tools and resources. Access more than 70 futures products nearly 24 hours a day, six days a week through Charles Schwab Futures and Forex LLC.
Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.
Be sure to understand all risks involved with each strategy, including commission costs, before attempting to place any trade. Clients must consider all relevant risk factors, including their own personal financial situations, before trading.
Before investing in an ETF, be sure to carefully consider the fund’s objectives, risks, charges, and expenses. For a prospectus containing this and other important information, contact us at 888-669-3900. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing.
Futures and futures options trading involves substantial risk, and is not suitable for all investors. Please read the Risk Disclosure for Futures and Options prior to trading futures products.
Futures accounts are not protected by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation (SIPC).
Futures and futures options trading services provided by TD Ameritrade Futures & Forex LLC. Trading privileges subject to review and approval. Not all clients will qualify.
ETNs are not funds and are not registered investment companies. ETNs are not secured debt and most do not provide principal protection. ETNs involve credit risk. The repayment of the principal, any interest, and the payment of any returns at maturity or upon redemption depend on the issuer’s ability to pay. The market value of an ETN may be impacted if the issuer’s credit rating is downgraded. ETNs may be subject to specific sector or industry risks. Leveraged and inverse ETNs are subject to substantial volatility risk and other unique risks that should be understood before investing. ETNs containing components traded in foreign currencies are subject to foreign exchange risk. ETNs may have call features that allow the issuer to call the ETN. A call right by an issuer may adversely affect the value of the notes.
ETFs can entail risks similar to direct stock ownership, including market, sector, or industry risks. ETF trading prices may not reflect the net asset value of the underlying securities. Commission fees typically apply.
Market volatility, volume, and system availability may delay account access and trade executions.
Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results or success.
Options are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading may expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses. Options trading subject to TD Ameritrade review and approval. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before investing in options.
Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or other technical data will be supplied upon request.
This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to persons residing in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, UK, and the countries of the European Union.
TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2024 Charles Schwab & Co. Inc. All rights reserved.