How might rising interest rates impact your retirement portfolio planning? Learn how rising rates can affect fixed income investments.
Interest rates have been changing, driven by a number of factors including Federal Reserve policy, fiscal policy, exchange rates, economic conditions and expectations for inflation.
December 2016 marked the second time in a decade that the Fed had hiked interest rates. Since then, the Fed has hiked rates three times in 2017 and twice so far in 2018, with another quarter-point hike widely expected at the Fed’s upcoming meeting September 25-26, per the CME’s FedWatch Tool.
The Fed’s shift in policy, combined with other market factors, has resulted in the yield curve re-pricing and flattening over the past 12 to 18 months. Anytime the markets are undergoing major changes like this, it’s a good idea to be proactive and examine your portfolio to understand the potential impacts of rising interest rates on your fixed income investments.
Fixed income investments, like bonds and brokered CDs–certificates of deposits that can be bought and resold—are frequently perceived to be a low-risk investment. That isn’t necessarily the case and fixed income investments come with their own unique risks.
First off, every bond is always going to have interest rate risk, also known as market risk. When interest rates go up, bond prices fall, and vice versa. Interest rate risk arises from the potential that changes in interest rates, both in the U.S. and abroad, can reduce the market value of a bond you hold. Interest rate risk diminishes the closer it gets to the bond’s maturity.
This might not be an issue for investors that plan to hold the bonds to maturity, but it can still be a good idea to plan for the unexpected, or be more conservative if there’s a possibility you might need to sell before maturity.
Investors that decide to sell before maturity might have to sell at a lower price than they anticipated depending on how much interest rates have risen. Some bonds, like high-yield (“junk”) bonds and emerging-markets debt, have become more popular in the hunt for higher yields, but they can be more difficult to sell prior to maturity due to the potential of limited liquidity.
To get an idea of how much a bond will fluctuate, look at its duration, which is an approximate measure of a bond’s price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The higher a bond’s duration, the more sensitive it will be to interest rate changes. All else equal, 1% change in interest rates will result in a 1% change of the price of the bond for each year of duration. If a bond has a duration of 6 years, a 1% rise in interest rates will result in a 6% decline in the price of the bond, whereas a 1% drop in interest rates will result in a 6% increase in the price of the bond.
Duration risk goes hand in hand with interest rate risk; the difference is that duration risk is specifically looking at the sensitivity of a bond’s price for every 1% change in interest rates.
While interest rates are front and center when it comes to fixed income risks, inflation is another threat it is important to be mindful of. An increase in inflation, or just an increase in expectations of future inflation, typically results in a drop in bond prices, and vice versa, similar to the impact of interest rates.
The reason for this is because inflation erodes the purchasing power of future cash flows an investor expects to receive from the bond.
For example, let’s say you buy a 10-year bond that pays 3% interest and inflation is currently at 1.9%. Your nominal yield is at least higher than the rate of inflation, but after a few months, market conditions change and everybody is worried that inflation is going to be around 3.5% by the end of next year.
In most scenarios, no investor is going buy a bond where they’re losing money because inflation is higher than what they’re earning from the bond. In these cases, yields typically rise and bond prices fall to compensate for the change in inflation—or expected change.
The challenge with rising inflation compared to rising interest rates is that holding a longer-term bond until maturity might not be a viable strategy when inflation is climbing rapidly.
Investors looking to mitigate interest rate risk, duration risk and the impact of inflation might benefit from shifting away from long-term bonds to shorter-term bonds, which typically experience less price volatility.
Portfolio strategies like bond and CD laddering, where investors purchase several bonds or CDs with staggered maturity dates, is another strategy an investor might want to consider. Bond and CD ladders may help minimize some of the associated risks with these types of investments, while still providing a regular stream of cash flows.
Just because there’s a lot of uncertainty surrounding future interest rates doesn’t mean you should abandon fixed income altogether. Instead, take a closer look at your portfolio and slowly adjust your investments to a level of risk you’re comfortable with.
Looking for more retirement information and resources? Visit the Retirement Planning page.
TD Ameritrade can help you find investments aimed to mitigate market volatility.
Do Not Sell or Share My Personal Information
Content intended for educational/informational purposes only. Not investment advice, or a recommendation of any security, strategy, or account type.
Be sure to understand all risks involved with each strategy, including commission costs, before attempting to place any trade. Clients must consider all relevant risk factors, including their own personal financial situations, before trading.
Investments in fixed income products are subject to liquidity (or market) risk, interest rate risk (bonds ordinarily decline in price when interest rates rise and rise in price when interest rates fall), financial (or credit) risk, inflation (or purchasing power) risk and special tax liabilities. May be worth less than the original cost upon redemption.
Market volatility, volume, and system availability may delay account access and trade executions.
Past performance of a security or strategy does not guarantee future results or success.
Options are not suitable for all investors as the special risks inherent to options trading may expose investors to potentially rapid and substantial losses. Options trading subject to TD Ameritrade review and approval. Please read Characteristics and Risks of Standardized Options before investing in options.
Supporting documentation for any claims, comparisons, statistics, or other technical data will be supplied upon request.
This is not an offer or solicitation in any jurisdiction where we are not authorized to do business or where such offer or solicitation would be contrary to the local laws and regulations of that jurisdiction, including, but not limited to persons residing in Australia, Canada, Hong Kong, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, UK, and the countries of the European Union.
TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, a subsidiary of The Charles Schwab Corporation. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2023 Charles Schwab & Co. Inc. All rights reserved.