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Which Advertiser Is The TD Ameritrade Ad Challenge Champion?

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February 6, 2017
Buzz about super bowl commercials.
istock.com/Bogdanhoda

Last night’s incredible comeback in the second half gave the winning team their 5th big game win, and their star quarterback his 5th ring, which is more than any other quarterback throughout history. Impressive, yet he wasn’t the only one making history last night. While the two teams battled it out on the field, some of the biggest publicly traded companies battled it out on the screen.

The cost for 30 seconds of air time rose to a record $5 million—a whopping $166,666 per second. And that doesn’t include the production cost to make a commercial, which can easily tack on millions more. So with all this cash in play, we decided to keep score.

During the big game, we used technology from Social Sentiment, a one of a kind resource available to TD Ameritrade clients, to determine which publicly-traded companies got the most positive buzz from their ads. So without further ado, here are the winners of TD Ameritade’s Ad Challenge.

The Most Popular Advertiser: KO

The Coca-Cola Co (KO) has captured the hearts of consumers and investors alike for decades. KO spends over $3 billion a year on advertising—making the $5 million for 30 seconds of air time seem like pocket change. The company ran several ads this year, but its pre-coin toss “America the Beautiful” ad generated the most positive reactions. KO received 8,356 positive tweets overall to win.  KO stock was down 0.26% in 2016 and significantly underperformed the S&P 500 (SPX). 

FIGURE 1: THE AD CHALLENGE CHAMPION.

Social Sentiment for KO had been trending down prior to the big game, but last night’s ads could help turn that around. Chart source: thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade.  Data source: Standard & Poor’s and Likefolio. Not a recommendation. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

The Runner Up: VLKAY

Volkswagen AG (VLKAY) just barely beat out General Motors Co (GM) with Audi’s commercial focused on equal pay for equal work. VLKAY had 5,629 positive mentions compared to GM’s 5,449 positive mentions. VLKAY finished 2016 down 7.31% after declining 25.54% in 2015. GM investors are going to be paying close attention tomorrow as the company reports Q4 earnings before market open.

FIGURE 2: THE RUNNER UP.

Social Sentiment for VLKAY, shown in the bottom chart, fluctuated throughout 2016 as it continued to resolve its diesel emissions scandal. Chart source: thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade.  Data source: Standard & Poor’s and Likefolio. Not a recommendation. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

PG Cleans Up

Thanks to Mr. Clean, Procter & Gamble Co (PG) place third with 5,568 positive tweets. PG took advantage of its massive advertising budget—it spent $7.2 billion on advertising in 2016—and ran several ads across multiple brands. But it was the company’s “You Gotta Love a Man Who Cleans” ad that drew the most positive buzz. PG stock was up 9.24% in 2016 and has been off to a strong start in 2017 with just under a 5% return.

FIGURE 3: PG CLEANS UP.

Shares of PG have rallied in the last several months, but still remain below last year’s high of $90.33. Chart source: thinkorswim® by TD Ameritrade.  Data source: Standard & Poor’s and Likefolio. Not a recommendation. For illustrative purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Just Because You Love It

When you love a product, you can become a little biased towards it. The same thing can happen with the companies you trade. Social Sentiment on the TD Ameritrade thinkorswim® platform lets you check to see if consumers feel the same way you do about a company. It captures every positive, negative and neutral mention on Twitter about a company, and its products, to give you a read on consumer sentiment. It’s powered by LikeFolio, which aggregates tweets and tracks status updates, "likes," and check-ins against a proprietary database filled with keywords and phrases linked to publicly traded companies. You can even filter mentions that are related to any given division of the company. Take KO for example. You can filter by health drinks, soft drinks and other divisions to see how consumers are responding to new products.

So remember, while it’s fun to see how consumers react during the Big Game, monitoring longer-term trends in consumer sentiment are likely to be more insightful. Tracking social media sentiment and volume of brand mentions can help traders discern potential trends. Social Sentiment allows you to see if the mentions about a given company are trending more negatively or more positively over a customizable timeframe, providing traders one last gut check before hitting buy or sell.  

Make sure to check out the full list of TD Ameritrade Ad Challenge winners.