Schwab Center for Financial Research

Without Nonfarm Payrolls at the end of the week, Wall Street faces a new month with something of a data drought. Fed speakers, including Powell on Friday, may fill the vacuum.

There were signs of strong holiday shopping over the weekend as several additional retailers prepare to report this week, but stocks felt pressure early Monday from weak Chinese industrial profits data. Several Treasury auctions run today and Fed speakers return tomorrow.

Today’s a shortened session, but investors will be digesting Friday’s Black Friday retail reports with their turkey dinners. Next week’s attention turns to key housing data and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), the Fed’s favorite inflation indicator.

There's a bunch of fresh news this morning including a surprise delay by OPEC of its weekend meeting, the return of Sam Altman to OpenAI, and an Nvidia earnings report that mostly impressed. Volume could lighten as the day continues ahead of tomorrow's U.S. holiday closure.

Artificial intelligence is front and center today as investors watch for new developments in the storm centering around OpenAI even as Nvidia’s earnings are expected after the close. Fed minutes are also in the picture and several big retailers reported today.

The shortened holiday week offers plenty of action, including an OPEC meeting, Nvidia earnings, and Treasury auctions. The dollar index is near three-month lows, which could provide support for equities. Microsoft shares rose in premarket trading on a key new hire.

Wall Street got a boost open from falling Treasury yields as the futures market built in growing chances of a Fed rate cut as soon as Q1 of 2024. Much depends on data between now and then, however. Next week is short, but includes Fed minutes, Nvidia earnings, and Leading Indicators.

The long rally could be at risk as Walmart and Cisco both expressed caution in their guidance. Shares of both companies lost ground ahead of the open, and the weakness appeared to spread to the major indexes. Treasury yields, however, remain near the bottom of their range.

Inflation cooled on the wholesale side in October, helped by falling gas prices, but retail sales remained hotter than expected. This could mean consumers stayed healthy amid low unemployment. Treasury yields got an initial bounce from the retail sales data.

The October Consumer Price Index (CPI) report this morning showed flat headline growth month-over-month and the lightest yearly gain in core prices in two years. Stocks immediately lifted off after the data as investors dialed down chances of near-term rate hikes to practically zero.